U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russian territory, although only for the limited purpose of self-defense and only against targets near the border with the Kharkiv region in Ukraine’s northeast. Germany followed suit to match the new U.S. policy earlier today. (Reuters; Washington Post)
Although narrow in its immediate effect, Biden’s decision marks a major shift in his policy toward the war in Ukraine. Since the conflict began in February 2022, Biden has been clear in mandating that no U.S.-supplied weapons be used to strike targets outside Ukraine’s borders, out of fear that doing so would escalate the conflict to involve more parties.
Indeed, fear of escalation has in many ways come to define U.S. policy toward the war in Ukraine. Since before the war began, Russian President Vladimir Putin has routinely issued threats over the West’s aid to Ukraine. And while Western leaders have tried to present a united front against Putin, they have varied somewhat in their responses to these threats, with some arguing the West should call Putin’s bluff, while others—like Biden—have often argued that doing so is not worth the risk.
In this case, though, the U.S. clearly came to the conclusion that the risks of not allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia, at least in a limited capacity, outweigh the risks that doing so will actually lead to escalation.
The reason why the U.S. calculus changed in part comes down to the specific circumstances of Russia’s latest offensive, which began on May 10 in Ukraine’s northeast. Moscow has since concentrated its latest assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which sits close enough to the border that Russia can easily carry out attacks from its own territory. As a result, the Biden administration faced increased pressure to alter its own red line to ensure that Russia’s current assault on Kharkiv does not become a true turning point in the war.
While the effect of Russia’s current offensive on the war’s trajectory remains to be seen, it is clear that there has been a shift in the war’s overall shape. After months of relatively few battlefield developments—so few that a Ukrainian general called the state of the war a “stalemate”—the past two months, beginning with the U.S. approval of a long-delayed aid package to Ukraine, have seen a flurry of changes, both on the battlefield and off.
The biggest shifts may be yet to come. Next week, French President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly expected to unveil a plan to send military trainers from some of Kyiv’s allies in the West to Ukraine, a move that would yet again cross a line that has so far been avoided out of fear of escalation.